Champions League Winner Odds 2026/27: Who Will Win?

Barcelona are favourites in the Champions League winner odds at 5.00 on ChampBet, a 20% implied chance, with Arsenal, Bayern Munich and holders Paris Saint-Germain all at 6.50. Real Madrid are 8.00 and Manchester City 10.00. Our pick to lift the trophy in Madrid on 5 June 2027 is Arsenal at 6.50, with a steadier angle on them to reach the final at 4.33.

All prices are ChampBet odds on 7 October 2026, after Matchday 1, and they will move after every round. An outright bet is a long-range opinion, and football is unpredictable, so treat these as views, not promises. For fixtures and match picks, see our Champions League hub.

Champions League winner odds 2026/27: the top eight

Club	Winner	Implied chance	To reach the final	Top 8 finish
Barcelona	5.00	20.0%	4.00	1.36
Arsenal	6.50	15.4%	4.33	1.36
Bayern Munich	6.50	15.4%	4.00	1.40
PSG	6.50	15.4%	4.00	1.40
Real Madrid	8.00	12.5%	4.33	1.33
Manchester City	10.00	10.0%	5.50	1.50
Liverpool	17.00	5.9%	8.00	1.53
Manchester United	26.00	3.8%	11.00	2.88

Inter (34.00) and Atlético Madrid (41.00) are next. Implied chance is 1 ÷ odds, so 6.50 means 1 ÷ 6.50 = 15.4%. Add up all 36 clubs and you get about 126%: the extra 26% is the bookmaker’s margin, so each club’s true chance is a little lower than the figure shown. Our guide to how betting odds work explains this in full.

Who will win the Champions League 2027? The case for each favourite

Each case below uses verified summer business, the coach and the Matchday 1 result. Opta’s pre-season model, reported by BBC Sport, is a useful second opinion where it exists.

Barcelona (5.00)

Hansi Flick’s LaLiga champions added Rodri from Manchester City, Anthony Gordon, João Cancelo and Gabriel Jesus from Arsenal, according to ESPN’s power rankings. Raphinha led a 5-1 win over Feyenoord on Matchday 1. The doubt is the defence, which has let Barcelona down in Europe before. They go to Galatasaray on Matchday 2 and to PSG on Matchday 3.

Arsenal (6.50)

Last season’s runners-up lost the final to PSG, after topping the league phase, and start this season as Premier League champions. Mikel Arteta added Ezri Konsa, Bruno Guimarães and Christos Tzolis. They won 1-0 at Napoli on Matchday 1 with a late Martin Ødegaard goal. Opta made them pre-season favourites at 20.4%.

Bayern Munich (6.50)

Vincent Kompany’s side lost to PSG in last season’s semi-finals. Harry Kane scored 64 goals last season, Michael Olise and Luis Díaz support him, and Ismael Saibari and Nathaniel Brown arrived in the summer. Bayern beat Bodø/Glimt 5-0 on Matchday 1, and Opta rated them almost level with Arsenal at 20%.

Paris Saint-Germain (6.50)

Luis Enrique’s side have won the last two finals and are chasing a third in a row. They added Ferran Torres, Lucas Digne, Mika Godts and Maghnes Akliouche, but sold Bradley Barcola to Liverpool. Torres scored a hat-trick in the 6-1 win over Slovan Bratislava. Opta gave them a 7.3% chance of the three-peat, far below their 15.4% implied chance here.

Real Madrid (8.00)

José Mourinho is back, a coach who has won this competition with Porto in 2004 and Inter in 2010. Yan Diomande and Denzel Dumfries joined, and Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior and Jude Bellingham remain. Madrid beat Inter 2-1 on Matchday 1 and are the shortest price to top the league phase at 4.50.

Manchester City (10.00)

Enzo Maresca has replaced Pep Guardiola, and the midfield was rebuilt with Elliot Anderson, Ayyoub Bouaddi and Enzo Fernández after Rodri left. Erling Haaland scored both goals in a 2-0 win at Porto. Opta ranked City third at 12.7%, but they have the toughest draw of the English clubs, with PSG at home on Matchday 2 and a trip to Barcelona in December.

Liverpool (17.00)

Andoni Iraola replaced Arne Slot and signed Bradley Barcola and Víctor Muñoz. Liverpool came from behind to beat Atlético Madrid 2-1 on Matchday 1, with Alexis Mac Allister scoring the winner, and ESPN’s panel rates their league phase draw as gentler than their rivals’.

Manchester United (26.00)

Michael Carrick is now in permanent charge, and United added Youri Tielemans, Andrey Santos and Carlos Baleba. They beat Sabah 4-0 on their return to the competition. A trip to Atlético Madrid on Matchday 2, where Ademola Lookman awaits, is the first real test.

Our Champions League outright pick: Arsenal at 6.50

Arsenal are our pick because the price looks short of their chance. Opta’s model gave them 20.4% before a ball was kicked, while 6.50 implies 15.4%. That gap is what value betting is about: backing a side when you think the price underrates them.

The case rests on three things. Their defence is their strength (BBC pundit Julien Laurens called it “the best defence in Europe by far”), they know what a final feels like after reaching last season’s, and they won a tough away game at Napoli on the opening night. The risk is scoring: they needed 80 minutes to break Napoli down. Two early tests will tell us a lot: Bayern away on 21 October and Real Madrid at home on 9 December.

The each-way style angle: to reach the final at 4.33

There is no each-way market on the winner, but you can build one. Split your stake between Arsenal to win and Arsenal to reach the final. With ₦2,000 in total:

Outcome	₦1,000 on win @ 6.50	₦1,000 on reach final @ 4.33	Result
Arsenal win the final	₦6,500	₦4,330	₦10,830 back, ₦8,830 profit
Arsenal lose the final	₦0	₦4,330	₦4,330 back, ₦2,330 profit
Arsenal miss the final	₦0	₦0	₦2,000 lost

The reach-the-final half pays even if PSG or Bayern beat them in Madrid. If you prefer Bayern, the same idea works with Bayern to reach the final at 4.00, a 25% implied chance for a side Opta rated at 20% to win the whole thing.

Outright stakes are tied up until June, so keep them small. Our bankroll management guide shows how to size them.

The English clubs angle

England has five clubs in the league phase, and all five won on Matchday 1: Arsenal at Napoli, City at Porto, Aston Villa 3-2 at Club Brugge, Liverpool against Atlético and United against Sabah. Opta put all five in its top ten for win chances before the season.

Nationality of winner	Odds	Implied chance
England	2.63	38.0%
Spain	2.75	36.4%
France	5.50	18.2%
Germany	5.50	18.2%
Italy	12.00	8.3%
Other	15.00	6.7%

England at 2.63 works like one bet on all five English clubs. Add up their individual winner prices and you get about 37%, close to the 38% the England price implies, so it is a fair way to back “an English winner” without choosing between Arsenal, City and Liverpool. Spain at 2.75 does the same for Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atlético, Villarreal and Real Betis.

Inside England, the Premier League top team in the league phase market has Arsenal at 2.38, City at 3.25, Liverpool at 5.00, United at 10.00 and Villa at 13.00.

Other outright markets worth a look

• League stage winner: Real Madrid 4.50, PSG 5.50, Arsenal and Barcelona 6.00, Bayern 6.50. Arsenal topped the league phase last season.
• Top 8 finish: Real Madrid 1.33 is the shortest. Manchester United at 2.88 and Aston Villa at 3.75 are the English sides the market doubts.
• Match by match: our Champions League predictions for Matchday 2 include the Man City vs PSG prediction, the round’s biggest game. The Man City vs PSG odds on ChampBet are already live.

For kick-off times through the winter, see our Champions League fixtures in Nigerian time.

Arsenal, our outright pick, start Matchday 2 at home: read our Arsenal vs Lille prediction. For the players behind each contender, see our Champions League players to watch. Real Madrid’s trip is in our Roma vs Real Madrid prediction.

Back your Champions League winner

Outright markets sit with the Champions League in the ChampBet sportsbook, next to the Champions League match coupon. Pick your side, keep the stake small and revisit the prices after each matchday.