Roma vs Real Madrid Prediction, Odds and Team News

Our Roma vs Real Madrid prediction is both teams to score at 1.38: AS Roma host Real Madrid at the Stadio Olimpico on Wednesday 14 October at 20:00 WAT, and we expect goals at both ends. Over 2.5 goals, also at 1.38, is our second angle on a Matchday 2 night that marks José Mourinho’s return to Rome.

All prices are ChampBet odds on 7 October 2026 and will change before kick-off. Predictions are our opinion, and football is unpredictable, so set a budget and stick to it.

Roma vs Real Madrid team news

AS Roma

Gian Piero Gasperini has one big worry and one big boost.

• Bryan Cristante is unlikely to play. The captain has a collateral ligament problem in his knee and said himself he will probably miss Como and Real Madrid (Football Italia via Yahoo).
• Donyell Malen, Roma’s top scorer, withdrew from the Netherlands squad with a knee knock picked up against Inter, but Gasperini expects him to be fully available again (Gazzetta).
• Wesley also missed international duty with a muscle problem and is being assessed.
• Paulo Dybala has trained fully, and Gasperini says he is happy with him.

Roma visit Como on Sunday 11 October, three days before this game.

Real Madrid

Mourinho’s squad has several absences, mostly in defence (Sports Mole):

• Out: Rodrygo (knee), Éder Militão (hamstring), Ferland Mendy (thigh) and Raúl Asencio (stress fracture in his leg).
• Expected back: Kylian Mbappé (knee, hurt on France duty) and Ibrahima Konaté (knee) are both minor doubts and are expected to be available.
• Doubt: Federico Valverde (ankle) needs a late fitness test.
• Suspension: Dean Huijsen misses Saturday’s game with Villarreal after his red card in the Madrid derby, but he is available in Rome.

How are Roma and Real Madrid playing this season?

Roma went into the international break joint top of Serie A on 13 points, unbeaten after four wins and a draw, including a 2-2 with champions Inter. Real Madrid are fourth in La Liga on 15 points, six behind Barcelona. In the Champions League, Real beat Inter 2-1 and Roma drew 1-1 at Fenerbahçe.

Roma’s start under Gasperini has been explosive. They beat Fiorentina 4-0 and Lecce 4-0, then Atalanta 2-1, won 2-0 at Torino and came back for a 2-2 draw with Inter. That is 14 goals in five league games. In Istanbul on Matchday 1, Cristante put Roma ahead before Archie Brown equalised, in Roma’s first Champions League game since 2019.

Real Madrid have been less convincing in La Liga, already six points behind Barcelona after seven games. They did pass the big European test on Matchday 1, with Mbappé lifting them past Inter in a 2-1 win.

Players to watch

Donyell Malen (Roma)

Malen was named Serie A Player of the Month for August and September after scoring six goals in his first five league games: a hat-trick against Fiorentina, a brace against Lecce and the opener at Torino (Football Italia). Last season he scored 14 in 18 Serie A games after joining from Aston Villa in January 2026. His pace in behind is the biggest threat to a Real back line missing Militão and Asencio.

Paulo Dybala and Manu Koné (Roma)

Dybala gives Roma the final pass that Gasperini’s attacking system needs, and he is fully fit. Koné, who scored in the 2-2 with Inter, drives Roma forward from midfield and will have more responsibility with Cristante out.

Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)

If his knee holds up, Mbappé is the player most likely to decide the game. He made the difference against Inter on Matchday 1, and Real’s attack runs through him.

Vinícius Júnior and Dean Huijsen (Real Madrid)

Vinícius gives Real a second outlet in transition, which suits Mourinho’s style away from home. Huijsen returns from suspension and should lead a reshaped defence.

The Mourinho factor

This is Mourinho’s first competitive return to the Stadio Olimpico since he left Roma in January 2024. He won the Conference League with Roma in 2022 and is still popular with many fans. Cristante summed it up: “Mourinho knows how to win and he wins wherever he goes.” Expect a loud welcome and a tactically careful Real Madrid.

Roma vs Real Madrid head-to-head

Real Madrid have won the last four meetings without conceding: 2-0 home and away in the 2015/16 round of 16, then 3-0 in Madrid and 2-0 in Rome in the 2018/19 group stage. Roma’s last wins over Real came in the 2007/08 round of 16, when they won 2-1 in both legs. History favours Real, but this Roma side is very different.

Roma vs Real Madrid odds explained

Implied probability is 1 divided by the decimal price. Our guide to how betting odds work explains it step by step.

Market	ChampBet odds (7 Oct 2026)	Implied probability
Roma win	3.68	27.2%
Draw	4.10	24.4%
Real Madrid win	1.88	53.2%
Both teams to score: Yes	1.38	72.5%
Both teams to score: No	2.75	36.4%
Over 2.5 goals	1.38	72.5%
Under 2.5 goals	2.80	35.7%
Over 3.5 goals	2.00	50.0%

The 1X2 prices add up to about 105%, which is the bookmaker’s margin. The market rates Real as roughly a 53% chance, so it respects Roma’s form more than the names on the team sheet suggest. The goals markets are clear: around a 72% chance that both teams score and a similar chance of three or more goals.

The Champions League coupon on ChampBet, where every Matchday 2 game is priced.

Our Roma vs Real Madrid prediction

Roma have scored in every league game and average almost three goals a match. Real Madrid arrive without Militão, Mendy and Asencio, and Valverde is a doubt. That is a weak spot for Malen and Dybala to attack.

At the other end, Roma’s high-pressing, man-to-man system leaves space behind it, and Real have the pace of Mbappé and Vinícius to punish that. Mourinho may set Real up to counter, which suits that pair.

We lean towards a 2-2 draw, with a 1-2 Real win the next most likely score. Our pick is both teams to score at 1.38, confidence 3 out of 5.

The risk to the pick: Real have kept four clean sheets in a row against Roma, and a Mourinho side can shut a game down once ahead. If Malen is not fully fit or Roma tire after the Como game, a 0-1 or 0-2 is possible.

Other markets worth a look

• Over 2.5 goals at 1.38: our second angle, for the same reasons. Our over 2.5 goals tips cover how to read this line.
• Real Madrid to win at 1.88: if you think Real’s quality wins out, the price reflects only a 53% chance.
• Over 3.5 goals at 2.00: an even-money shot on another high-scoring Roma night.
• Double chance, Roma or draw (1X) at 1.93: the contrarian angle, backing Roma’s home form.
• Bet Builder idea: put both teams to score and over 2.5 goals into one Bet Builder slip; the combined price appears in your slip.
• Accas: BTTS and over 2.5 at 1.38 sit just below the 1.40 minimum for One Leg Down acca insurance. Real Madrid at 1.88 or over 3.5 at 2.00 would qualify. Full terms apply on the One Leg Down page.

What time is Roma vs Real Madrid in Nigeria?

Roma vs Real Madrid kicks off at 20:00 WAT on Wednesday 14 October 2026. That is 21:00 in Rome and Madrid and 20:00 in London.

ChampBet, the new Lagos-licensed sportsbook launched in 2026, prices the game on the Roma vs Real Madrid match page, with BTTS, goal totals, handicaps and more. During the game, follow it on live betting. Want to share your slip? Create a ChampBet booking code and send it on WhatsApp.

For the rest of the round, read our Matchday 2 Champions League predictions, and visit the Champions League hub for every fixture in Nigerian time.

Bet on Roma vs Real Madrid

Compare this match with the rest of Matchday 2 on the ChampBet Champions League coupon. Check the team sheets an hour before kick-off, especially for Malen and Valverde, and keep your stakes within your plan.